Villa Blog

Aston Villa’s January Transfer Window

With only a few weeks to go to the January transfer window, I thought it would be a good idea to discuss what Aston Villa should do. As this is a transfer window unlike any other transfer window we have had in the last number of years. The reason is that we do not need to do anything. For quite a while now, we absolutely needed to get players in for certain positions, but this is different. We currently have a 1st 11 and we have backup for every position. I agree that our backup may not be great. But the fact that we have 2 players for every position gives us a little breathing space. This breathing space is further enhanced by our league position. We are not scraping about relegation, so we are not under pressure for any panic buys.

Our Transfer Strategy

What should our Jan transfer strategy be? To me, our strategy should be aligned with our long-term objectives and should not be as simple as just ‘improve the 1st 11’. We need to look to make Aston Villa both successful on the pitch and sustainable from a financial perspective. The key to a football club becoming sustainable is to sell players at the right time. It is a bit like trading on the stock exchange. We all want to sell high, but the shrewd investors will also sell to minimise and accept a loss.

Although, and as I said earlier, we do not need to do anything, there may be logic for us to try and mitigate any risks we have. If we got a long-term injury to a key player could we survive the rest of the season without him? The problem with this is that replacing or buying backup for a key player will be very expensive and difficult in the Jan window.

Who Should We Sell Or Keep?

My view is that every player at Villa has a price and we should not be afraid to sell any player if that price is met. The key is to determine what that price is. This is quite complex as many different factors, including contract duration impact it. The most important one for me is where the player is in their development. Back to my stock exchange analogy we want to sell when players have a high valuation. Also, players that have reached their peak and are on the decline should also be sold. Below I have grouped the players into buckets of whether we should sell or not.

Right to sell

Grealish, McGinn, Mings, Targett, El Ghazi, Trezeguet, Nakamba

Keep to improve

Watkins, Traore, Cash, Martinez, Luiz, Konsa, Davis, Wesley

Other than youth players all other players should be sold and replaced with an upgrade. 

Before people jump on me to say we can’t sell those players, I am not suggesting selling them all now. I am suggesting they are to be sold if the conditions suit AVFC i.e. the money is right, and we can replace them in the same transfer window. Also, we do not want to sell too many players in one window as we do not want a complete rebuild like we had following our promotion. 

My Hopes for January

I think the two best bits of business we could do would be to buy Luiz’s buy back clause out of his contract and give Luiz a new long-term contract at Villa and to sign Barkley on a permanent transfer. If we feel flush with cash and if the right player appears on the market I would like to see us buy a LB as Taylor will be leaving us in the summer and it would be good to get his replacement in during the Jan window to provide some real competition to Targett.

I would also like to see us get some backup for Jack / Barkley / Right Wing / McGinn. To me, the Jesse Lingard links look very attractive as he alone would cover each of those position and would surely improve the 1st 11, if people disagree that he would improve the 1st 11 then surely there is no debate that he would improve our bench. I would much prefer to see Lingard start against Wolves than Hourihane. I don’t believe we need any additions up front. We have Watkins and Wes is coming back soon and hopefully Davis will be fit to come on as a sub.

For Sale

Of my players on the ‘For Sale’ list, I would most like to see Mings leave. I think he is probably at his peak value and will go down in value with each transfer window we enter. So if an acceptable bid comes in then we should sell and replace with a better quality and younger (left footed) CB, unfortunately ruling out signing Tuanzebe. Next summer is the time to sell Jack imo. If Jack can finish off the season well and have a good Euros then we could anticipate a fee close to 100m. I would absolutely take the 100m and try and reinvest it in some more quality for the first team. This is where we really need Lange to step up to the plate. We can’t afford to sell Jack and replace him with a dud, we need real quality to push the team forward. 

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102 Responses

      1. Vancouvervillan

        27 chances, I think i understand why he didn’t change it up. He threw on an extra striker. Guilbert, Traore can’t cross either.

  1. Vancouvervillan

    Do you guys have Owen Hargreaves ? What a poor, unremarkable pundit, (& player) “Burnley will be happy with that” he might be right but how can you not want to see proper football.

  2. Vancouvervillan

    Hit woodwork twice, lost count of corners, I think El Ghazi has been better than Traore but opinions. Mee & Tarcoski couple of thugs. Think when they get a breakaway we should just hack em down, thats what they are doing.
    Jack needs to get smarter and move the ball quicker we have loads of runners.
    COYL

  3. Vancouvervillan

    Big chance for El Ghazi, Nakamba & Hause let’s hope they rise to the occaision and show us they are worthy of a squad place.

  4. Vancouvervillan

    So i guess Barkley not yet fit, Trezeguet will be a miss, slightly surprised that both El Ghazi & Traore start, Jack playing more centrally ?
    Konsa omission perhaps the biggest shock but lots of games coming up unless he’s injured too ?

  5. HenleyVillain

    Would have preferred Fred instead of Elmo. Barclay not on bench either, that’s a surprise. Fingers crossed Nakamba turns up with a game tonight.

  6. Vancouvervillan

    I think we’ll miss Trez, too bad. Time for Traore to step up, I wonder if he’s capable of 90 mins yet ? after 3 months or so we really shouldn’t have any doubts.

  7. Vancouvervillan

    So interesting dilemma for Thursday with at least two changes forced. I read a suggestion that Hause come in and move Konsa to RB, we did start that way for the restart and it worked.
    I think its going to be a slap in the face for Marvellous if he doesn’t replace Luiz at DM, he is the only other true DM. Elmo seems to have been the go to sub for Cash so far, but I think Guilbert the better bet in this case, with Burnley offering some physical presence and height up top. Would also reiterate the squad mantra, be patient you’ll get a chance.

    So Nakamba & Guilbert in for me and I’d also start Trezeguet if fit again. Hourihane in for Ramsey, leaving Ramsey ready for Sunday, a bit of forced rotation but with so many games coming up over Christmas not necessarily a bad thing.
    I always feel some rotation is important I wouldn’t want players feeling left out of the managers thinking, it is a squad game.

    1. Vancouvervillan

      Talking of DM’s, we could do with a strong DM as a priority in January imo, Luiz future is uncertain to say the least and looking at Ndidi’s impact today back for Leicester, shows what a really important position this is.

  8. Vancouvervillan

    Bloody palace done me in again ! Clearly my bogie team for predictions.
    Are we having fresh set of predictions for the midweek games boss ?

    1. Vancouvervillan

      Well he does have some strange ideas on football 😆😆😆.
      I got Southampton result right, 5 points, saved me this week.
      Long way to go yet.

  9. Vancouvervillan

    With most of the top six struggling this weekend, we’ve gained points on them. Not sure how i feel about games in hand not really paid dividends in recent times. Barkley back on Thursday and more wins on the board next 3 games would be nice.

  10. Vancouvervillan

    Just catching up, good steady away performance, looking like a hard earned draw until the pen. Really nice to nick one for a change.
    Ramsey did okay, McGinn better and Martinez motm.
    It wasn’t that scrappy of a game but FM 11 yellow cards ! Mike Dean at his finest, poor refereeing i thought.
    4 wins out of 5 away & nicking 2 extra points, I’ll take that.

  11. Vancouvervillan

    As much as I desperately want these sh*t teams like the stadium thrives, Palace, Sheffield, Brighton gone it seems they just aren’t cooperating 😒

  12. Vancouvervillan

    Just realized I hadn’t done predictions 🙄 cant predict the game today, but hoping for a Leeds win.

  13. Vancouvervillan

    Yeah, same happening here. You really have to question the logic of some of these decisions, kids have always spread coughs, colds, flu 🙄

  14. Vancouvervillan

    I can’t remember last time we sold a player for a profit. We’ve been so used to trying to get rid of older players or poor buys. Tbh we still have a few of them to shift, deadwood is still with us, all be it less of them.
    I dont want us to sell our top players either but making a profit on a few and reinvesting is part of the plan we have been sold under this regime. Not sure that would include any of the spine at this point anyway.
    Don’t think we have to worry for a while it’s not really a sellers market.
    Besides we’ll need a sizeable squad and depth for Europe 😉

  15. Vancouvervillan

    Nothing wrong with the concept of everyone’s for sale, just hard to guarantee replacements. Agree we need 3 or 4, holding onto Luiz, Barkley not enough.

  16. Vancouvervillan

    Nice post Begley.
    I can’t really disagree with any of that. Signing Barkley & removing the clause on Luiz would be fantastic, don’t get me wrong, but I will be a little disappointed if we don’t add more. Those two would really just keep the status quo and at a time where there are possibly bargains around due to clubs struggling with covid, I would expect us to do more.