Villa Blog

Aston Villa’s January Transfer Window

With only a few weeks to go to the January transfer window, I thought it would be a good idea to discuss what Aston Villa should do. As this is a transfer window unlike any other transfer window we have had in the last number of years. The reason is that we do not need to do anything. For quite a while now, we absolutely needed to get players in for certain positions, but this is different. We currently have a 1st 11 and we have backup for every position. I agree that our backup may not be great. But the fact that we have 2 players for every position gives us a little breathing space. This breathing space is further enhanced by our league position. We are not scraping about relegation, so we are not under pressure for any panic buys.

Our Transfer Strategy

What should our Jan transfer strategy be? To me, our strategy should be aligned with our long-term objectives and should not be as simple as just ‘improve the 1st 11’. We need to look to make Aston Villa both successful on the pitch and sustainable from a financial perspective. The key to a football club becoming sustainable is to sell players at the right time. It is a bit like trading on the stock exchange. We all want to sell high, but the shrewd investors will also sell to minimise and accept a loss.

Although, and as I said earlier, we do not need to do anything, there may be logic for us to try and mitigate any risks we have. If we got a long-term injury to a key player could we survive the rest of the season without him? The problem with this is that replacing or buying backup for a key player will be very expensive and difficult in the Jan window.

Who Should We Sell Or Keep?

My view is that every player at Villa has a price and we should not be afraid to sell any player if that price is met. The key is to determine what that price is. This is quite complex as many different factors, including contract duration impact it. The most important one for me is where the player is in their development. Back to my stock exchange analogy we want to sell when players have a high valuation. Also, players that have reached their peak and are on the decline should also be sold. Below I have grouped the players into buckets of whether we should sell or not.

Right to sell

Grealish, McGinn, Mings, Targett, El Ghazi, Trezeguet, Nakamba

Keep to improve

Watkins, Traore, Cash, Martinez, Luiz, Konsa, Davis, Wesley

Other than youth players all other players should be sold and replaced with an upgrade. 

Before people jump on me to say we can’t sell those players, I am not suggesting selling them all now. I am suggesting they are to be sold if the conditions suit AVFC i.e. the money is right, and we can replace them in the same transfer window. Also, we do not want to sell too many players in one window as we do not want a complete rebuild like we had following our promotion. 

My Hopes for January

I think the two best bits of business we could do would be to buy Luiz’s buy back clause out of his contract and give Luiz a new long-term contract at Villa and to sign Barkley on a permanent transfer. If we feel flush with cash and if the right player appears on the market I would like to see us buy a LB as Taylor will be leaving us in the summer and it would be good to get his replacement in during the Jan window to provide some real competition to Targett.

I would also like to see us get some backup for Jack / Barkley / Right Wing / McGinn. To me, the Jesse Lingard links look very attractive as he alone would cover each of those position and would surely improve the 1st 11, if people disagree that he would improve the 1st 11 then surely there is no debate that he would improve our bench. I would much prefer to see Lingard start against Wolves than Hourihane. I don’t believe we need any additions up front. We have Watkins and Wes is coming back soon and hopefully Davis will be fit to come on as a sub.

For Sale

Of my players on the ‘For Sale’ list, I would most like to see Mings leave. I think he is probably at his peak value and will go down in value with each transfer window we enter. So if an acceptable bid comes in then we should sell and replace with a better quality and younger (left footed) CB, unfortunately ruling out signing Tuanzebe. Next summer is the time to sell Jack imo. If Jack can finish off the season well and have a good Euros then we could anticipate a fee close to 100m. I would absolutely take the 100m and try and reinvest it in some more quality for the first team. This is where we really need Lange to step up to the plate. We can’t afford to sell Jack and replace him with a dud, we need real quality to push the team forward. 

UTV 

https://avfcvillablog.com

http://www.avfc.co.uk

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AVFCVillablog
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jcv
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jcv
9 months ago

hi lads,
well what can i say about last nights game,
cant fault the performance at all,apart from the finishing.it should have been like the liverpool result.
el ghazi should have scored at least 2 goals.
but he was selfish at times and his shooting was very erratic.

but when you look back at how certain of our ex managers would have set us up to play.
at least last nights football was a pleasure to watch.

AVFCVillablog
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9 months ago

New prediction sheet updated

Bigfatron
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Bigfatron
9 months ago
Reply to  Begley

Davies makes mcgoldrick look like shearer lol

Bigfatron
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Bigfatron
9 months ago

No more goals now in other match I have utd to win 2 1

Muz1
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Muz1
9 months ago

19 points is very respectable at this stage of the season and we played well tonight , the frustration being the amount of chances we wasted.
We lack that killer finishing which is needed to take that next step.
I thought 12th to 15th this season , so anything above that will be a bonus for me ,and while it is disappointing we have dropped points against sides we would consider winnable, it has been great to beat the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal, Leicester and Wolves so far this season, when in previous seasons we would all have been resigned to defeat.

Bigfatron
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Bigfatron
9 months ago
Reply to  Begley

We should be aiming a lot higher than avoiding the drop,remember our fixtures to come ,would love to see Smith prove me wrong but if loses jack he has no other play

Vancouvervillan
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Vancouvervillan
9 months ago
Reply to  Begley

Was thinking that watching him this week. Better decision making in final third needed and he has that.

Bigfatron
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Bigfatron
9 months ago
Reply to  Begley

Son supports chelsea so I see quite a bit of him,seems to score in short bursts missed great chance v spurs and everton last couple weeks,but would love him or someone like him at club

Bigfatron
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Bigfatron
9 months ago

It’s bad luck if you miss chances in 1 or 2 games not when it goes to 5

Vancouvervillan
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Vancouvervillan
9 months ago
Reply to  Bigfatron

Not sure any team has a striker where every chance is never in doubt. El Ghazi should have done better, even Mings missed a free header.
Tough to let this sort of game go, but as Jcv says we could have been Burnley not too long ago.
We’re heading in the right direction.

Bigfatron
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Bigfatron
9 months ago

But it’s not just this game,anyways after boxing day we have chelsea spurs cityutided pool everton all coming ,

jcv
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jcv
9 months ago

well the thing to do tonight,is just compare that performance as opposed to lamberk,mcleish and spuds way of playing.

didnt get the result we deserved,but still a great game to watch.
we are not going to win the league but are well capable of finishing in the top half of the league.
and for me that is progress.

Vancouvervillan
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Vancouvervillan
9 months ago
Reply to  jcv

Well said mate, take the point and move on.

jcv
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jcv
9 months ago

👍👍👍👍

Bigfatron
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Bigfatron
9 months ago
Reply to  jcv

You are easy pleased

Vancouvervillan
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Vancouvervillan
9 months ago
Reply to  Begley

Thats today’s predictions toast 😁😁😁

Bigfatron
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Bigfatron
9 months ago
Reply to  Begley

With the money we have spent it’s a disgrace we have no attacking options on bench

Vancouvervillan
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Vancouvervillan
9 months ago
Reply to  Begley

Wesley would be handy right now.
I do think both Jack & El Ghazi should of found the quick pass to open players in the box quite a few times.
Onwards & upwards, always a frustrating fixture for all PL teams.

Bigfatron
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Bigfatron
9 months ago
Reply to  Begley

Every teams get injuries

Bigfatron
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Bigfatron
9 months ago
Reply to  Begley

Heaton was only 8 m,to be fair surely there was free transfer or cheap players in europe ,elgazi not going to suddenly grow a set of balls every chance he got tonight you knew he wasn’t going to score

Bigfatron
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Bigfatron
9 months ago

Watkins scored 3 v pool,2 v gunners and last min penalty v soton ,blanks in 8 matches and not even shots in quite a few

Vancouvervillan
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Vancouvervillan
9 months ago
Reply to  Bigfatron

But you wouldn’t start Davies would you ?

Last edited 9 months ago by Vancouvervillan
Bigfatron
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Bigfatron
9 months ago

No but when he comes on it needs to be central,he is about as much use as a winger as an ashtray on a motor bike,put him in centre put Freddy on try and get crosses in even Davies doesn’t win them the breaking ball can be won,Elmo is absolutely crap as an attacking full back

Vancouvervillan
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Vancouvervillan
9 months ago
Reply to  Bigfatron

I would have moved Watkins wide right tbh

Bigfatron
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Bigfatron
9 months ago

I would went as a 442 with Freddy pushed up on right

Vancouvervillan
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Vancouvervillan
9 months ago

The players called up did well for me, El Ghazi, you don’t get 8 chances not playing well.

Muz1
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Muz1
9 months ago

Our home form should be a concern, we cannot seem to beat the sides we are expected to.

Muz1
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Muz1
9 months ago

We all knew what Burnley would set out to achieve.
The amount of missed chances concerns me more than what Burnley did.

Bigfatron
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Bigfatron
9 months ago
Reply to  Muz1

Yes but it was the effort putting into them elgazi doest want to break an eyelash

Vancouvervillan
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Vancouvervillan
9 months ago
Reply to  Muz1

Yeah, on another night its 5-0

Bigfatron
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Bigfatron
9 months ago

Sorry if you take fluke result against liverpool out it’s been a poor start after spending another 100 m on players

Vancouvervillan
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Vancouvervillan
9 months ago
Reply to  Begley

Could have been worse, disappointing but again we did enough for a win just didn’t get it. Other night’s we’ve been so clinical, let off for burnley

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